Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 0.050439 0.057402 0.065194 0.074602 0.085706 0.098460 0.114311
2025-12-14 0.039319 0.047730 0.057920 0.071307 0.088633 0.110575 0.140917
2025-12-21 0.030112 0.038493 0.049320 0.064585 0.085964 0.115485 0.160500
2025-12-28 0.025301 0.033966 0.045872 0.063860 0.091144 0.132355 0.202156
2026-01-04 0.021949 0.030845 0.043799 0.064729 0.099085 0.155963 0.263659
2026-01-11 0.018989 0.027799 0.041323 0.064571 0.105706 0.180190 0.338120
2026-01-18 0.016560 0.025165 0.039032 0.064302 0.112366 0.207487 0.434118
2026-01-25 0.014276 0.022406 0.036073 0.062301 0.115574 0.230121 0.535722
2026-02-01 0.012227 0.019727 0.032808 0.059081 0.115682 0.247048 0.637509
2026-02-08 0.010954 0.018195 0.031322 0.059014 0.122660 0.283647 0.826702
2026-02-15 0.009897 0.016890 0.030043 0.059123 0.130318 0.326669 1.083005
2026-02-22 0.009079 0.015911 0.029229 0.060089 0.140664 0.383956 1.467907
2026-03-01 0.008314 0.014946 0.028332 0.060814 0.151297 0.451356 2.017476
2026-03-08 0.007484 0.013740 0.026740 0.059540 0.156149 0.504284 2.610036
2026-03-15 0.006532 0.012168 0.024118 0.055108 0.150091 0.513786 2.975123
2026-03-22 0.006033 0.011470 0.023333 0.055330 0.159234 0.594693 4.105436
2026-03-29 0.005666 0.011006 0.023008 0.056759 0.173445 0.714339 6.081850
2026-04-05 0.005281 0.010451 0.022384 0.057210 0.184677 0.834195 8.772404
2026-04-12 0.004928 0.009922 0.021739 0.057466 0.195620 0.969044 12.765742
2026-04-19 0.004535 0.009259 0.020657 0.056112 0.199523 1.068485 17.238786
2026-04-26 0.004134 0.008530 0.019305 0.053580 0.197315 1.126606 21.677930
2026-05-03 0.003890 0.008146 0.018802 0.053777 0.208101 1.304001 32.951173
2026-05-10 0.003673 0.007803 0.018359 0.054087 0.219945 1.517054 52.002847